THE DEBATE WAS ROUGH, BUT PANIC IS NOT THE ANSWER

INTRODUCTION

I will admit, okay, that Biden’s debate performance last night was not great. While Trump lied every time he opened his mouth, he lied and did not answer the questions some three-quarters of the time, and while the debate moderators have a tough job, they should have done better fact-checking Trump and making him answer the question instead of going on rants about immigration every time. Biden’s substance was okay, but his delivery was halting and inconsistent, while Trump had a consistent delivery but lied constantly and did not answer the questions and lied constanly.

DEBATES HISTORICAL DETERMINATION OF OUTCOMES IS MIXED

Obama, for example, had a subpar first debate performance in 2012, and Donald Trump's debate performance in 2016 was not impressive either. Yet, in both these cases, it did not prevent either Trump or Obama from winning the 2012 and 2016 elections. The debates might have played a role in the victories for Bush in 2000 and Reagan in 1984. However, the historical data shows that the impact of debates on election outcomes is often mixed. Even as recently as 2022, Fetterman was criticized for his lackluster debate performance but still managed to win by Five percentage points. This resilience of our democratic process should instill confidence in us that the debates, while important, are not the sole determinants of the election outcome.

CONCLUSION WE NEED TO WORK HARD AND NOT PANIC

Those calling for Biden to drop out of the race are misguided. That will only create more confusion and eliminate the advantages of incumbency. It is time for everyone to take a deep breath and focus on working as hard as we can. Biden still very much has a shot at victory this November against a convicted felon, and it is worth noting that the PCE inflation metric, the preferred measure by the Federal Reserve just a day later, registered month-over-month inflation of 0% and Core (Excluding food and Energy) inflation of just 0.1% month over month. The disinflation is even more remarkable when considering that states like California, Texas, New York, North Carolina, Washington, and Illinois created over 10,000 jobs last month, and the only thing the previous two GOP presidents have in common is economic recessions and massive debt. So, this November's choice is clear: it is time to work harder than ever.